A weekend of reckoning

Can a new Germany lead a new Europe in resisting the Trump-Putin axis?

Apologies for not posting here this week. Like everyone trying to follow global politics, I’ve had my work cut out navigating three tasks: 1) trying to work out what’s going on, 2) relaying that in print and broadcast, 3) trying to reassure myself, friends and family that we’ll get through it. As a prominent German journalist texted me just a few moments ago: ‘please tell me all will be fine’. I said ‘yes of course’. As if I know…

Tomorrow’s German elections were always going to be the most consequential in a generation. And that was before last weekend and Munich and JD Vance and the great betrayal of Ukraine. For Germany, the Transatlantic relationship meant everything. It was existential. I use the past tense, because I’m convinced that whatever transpires from now, there will be no return to the status quo ante. Whatever eventually happens to Trump (and we’re barely a month in to 48 months of torment).

Hence it’s the moment for a new Germany and a new German leader. Does Friedrich Merz have what it takes? And will the Social Democrats and/or Greens show some resilience and join him for the ride, no matter how uncomfortable that may be? After all, democracy depends on it.

I’m posting below the most recent of several written pieces in recent days, from my weekly politico column. Plus here is a contribution for the Guardian. From tomorrow (Sunday) night onwards I’ll have a series of other pieces coming up, in the Independent, New European and Time Magazine. Plus Der Spiegel to follow.

Also here some broadcast interviews I did for BBC Radio 4’s World at One programme, Sky News, Bloomberg and Deutsche Welle. And I’m supposed to be on Matt Frei’s LBC show later today, plus Radio 4’s Broadcasting House show on Sunday morning and Channel 4 News on Sunday evening.

My website has full details, as it changes all the time.

I hope to post again early next week. Meantime, please get in touch with any thoughts or questions john@jkampfner.net

Good luck Germany. We’re holding our breath.

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In times of crisis, Germany’s current crop of politicians revert to type. They promise change, then they explain why that change will have to wait. That’s what Chancellor Olaf Scholz has done throughout his ignominious four-year tenure.

Upon his arrival in Paris this week, joining an emergency meeting to discuss the bombshells dropped by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration at the Munich Security Conference, the outgoing chancellor’s soundbite spoke volumes. Asked if he was ready to commit Germany to a European peace-keeping force in Ukraine, he replied: “Unfortunately, we are still a long way off” that moment.

Earlier, at a campaign rally in the city of Kassel, the Social Democratic (SPD) leader had offered a similarly vague platitude: “We have to make sure that Europe overcomes the challenges of the future in a strong and sovereign manner, and with its back straight.” Hardly a sentence that will have the White House quaking in its boots.

Thus, as Germany heads to the polls this Sunday, in possibly the most consequential postwar election it’s seen, the only crumb of comfort for an embattled European continent — and for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — is that Scholz will shortly be no more. Opinion polls haven’t wavered in their prediction of a comfortable Christian Democrat (CDU) win, and the likelihood is that party leader Friedrich Merz will form the next administration.

While the CDU leader has many faults, not least the habit of shooting from the hip, lack resolve isn’t one of them. So, will this finally be the moment Germany steps up?

Merz gives every impression he wants to be a different kind of leader than both Scholz and his predecessor Angela Merkel. He’s waited a long time for his moment, and at the age of 69, he may only have one shot at the chancellorship.

He will have three enormous tasks: toughening Germany’s asylum system — an even more urgent challenge after the recent spate of terror attacks; kick-starting an ailing economy; and transforming his country’s armed forces. And in order to fulfill the last two of these priorities, he’ll need to loosen the constitutional brake on borrowing, something he’s hinted he’s prepared to do.

This isn’t just about money — it’s about leadership.

From next week on, Friedrich Merz will likely have to begin the task of forming Germany’s new government with either the SPD or the Greens — or possibly both. | Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images

Scholz had his moment in February 2022. His Zeitenwende (turning point) speech, delivered just a few days after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, suggested that he and Germany were finally prepared to invest in hard power to defend democracy. And Scholz’s popularity skyrocketed.

But instead of actually developing this new robust approach, Scholz pared it back. He succumbed to the “salon pacifists” that remain a force inside his party. And while Germany did end up becoming Ukraine’s largest military donor, the support was often late and didn’t include the most lethal weapons system that Kyiv had begged for.

Apart from Poland and the Baltic states — all countries bordering Russia — Europe as a whole has fallen short, only recently hitting the 2 percent of GDP defense spending target that former U.S. President Barack Obama pleaded with NATO to meet back in 2014. And now, Merz and other European leaders need to contend with the 3 percent Trump is demanding.

As the new White House appears ready to stitch up a tawdry deal with the Kremlin, Germany’s attention should turn not only to defending Ukraine from Russia but to protecting Europe from the twin threats of Trump and Putin. The cavalier contempt U.S. Vice President JD Vance and others in Trump’s entourage displayed toward Western democracy — or at least Europe’s interpretation of Western democracy —affects Germany in particular.

By ostentatiously meeting with Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leader Alice Weidel (while shunning Scholz), and calling for the removal of Germany’s “firewall” against the far right, Vance, in effect, endorsed the AfD a week before election day. Tech billionaire Elon Musk’s love-in with Weidel might be dismissed as the quixotic utterances of a maverick, but this is different — and even more sinister.

It’s also leading many Germans to wonder whether the U.S. is any more its protector or its foe.

German politicians didn’t hold back in their criticism, with the most telling response coming from the Greens’ chancellor candidate and current Minister of Economic Affairs Robert Habeck: The U.S. government “rhetorically and politically sided with the autocrats,” he said. “The Western community of values was terminated here.”

Enter Merz.

From next week on, he’ll likely have to begin the task of forming Germany’s new government with either the SPD or the Greens — or possibly both. He has told them he won’t brook any delay or excessive haggling. Germany faces too many crises on too many fronts for delay.

After the acrimonious disintegration of the three-party “traffic light” coalition, the pressure to conclude these negotiations swiftly and productively will be strong. The mainstream parties will need to demonstrate to voters — and their American critics — that they can produce a resilient administration, which can then begin the task of showing that Europe counts.

However, that requires a courageous Germany, led by a courageous chancellor. Does Merz have what it takes?